August 6, 2013, Emerging Display Technologies Conference, San Jose, CA-Charles Annis from NPD DisplaySearch presented the trends and markets for flat panel displays and their manufacture. Then evaluated some technologies and their potentials for growth and market share.
Evaluation requires some metrics and identification of assumptions. The evaluation criteria included performance enhancements like higher light transmission and color gamut, cost of ownership, risk factors, and external factors that may be fluid and non-quantifiable. Some external factors are patents and licensing, marketing effectiveness, competing technologies, application and market pull, new or devoted resources, market size, and the ubiquitous other.
The various technologies are indications of big changes coming. These criteria were used to evaluate and score the following technologies: ultra high PPI, 4k2k,IPS photo alignment, oxide TFTs, unbreakable and flexible displays, AMOLED, and quantum dots. All of the newer technologies are compared to conventional technologies to provide a reality check, since many new technologies fail when the incumbent technologies improve before the new technology can gain traction.
The time to market and development costs may be moving targets that present barriers to entry that are aided by market inertia. For example, inkjet printers for display color filters have been talked about for a while, but the technology of choice is still lithography because of the improvements in the photographic processes.
Ultra high PPI is a technology that is now pushing the limits of science. The human visual acuity is limited by viewing conditions, brightness, and distance to the display. At close range, people can see over 450 pixels per inch and the resolving power drops with increasing distance. Above 400 PPI, the benefits drop off, even though people in tests say a higher resolution has more "beautifulness".
The challenge is that most smart phone power consumption is in the display, and higher resolution displays use more power. There are many approaches to power reduction, and decreasing feature size increases efficiency and aperture ratios. Expect to see displays over 400 PPI in about one third of smart phones in '15.
4k2k displays need to have faster decoders, under 5 milliseconds per frame. The displays need to have lower resistance interconnects to speed up display response. TVs will follow mobile to higher PPI.
Photo alignment is getting closer to commercial deployment, but there are some patent issues hindering greater adoption as well as high anchoring energy requirements. The possible advantages for the processes like better response times and improved contrast signify a high potential for adoption.
Oxide TFTs have many issues to be worked out. All of them need significant R&D before the problems are solved. The manufacturers need to get a stable process so they can start to work on yield curve and production efficiency. There is a big difference between OLED and LCD manufacturing.
Flexible AMOLED is close to commercialization. Samsung and LG are using a lift-off process for their displays. This process results in very thin, light, and unbreakable displays with limited flexibility. Even with commercial production coming soon, there are still many challenges in the manufacturing flows, such as repeatability, yield issues, costs, high equipment costs, etc. The reliability and relatively short LED lifetimes need to be solved before the technology is ready for the markets.
Quantum dot-based backlighting offers wide color gamuts, greater optical efficiency, and can use the existing backlight ecosystem. The concerns are about reliability, efficiency, and cost, while some of the materials use heavy metals which may conflict with the reduction of hazardous substances requirements in Europe. This technology is still in early stages of manufacturing, so much can be done to improve yields and costs.
These technologies all have potential, and the implications for them are fairly positive. The forecast for flat panel equipment is robust and is projected to be in the $6-8B range by '16. The Chinese government is changing policies which may lower demand, but foreseeable demand exceeds likely capacity for a while. Overall, panel margins are stabilizing at about 5 percent. See the table for scoring on the various technologies.
